学术论文翻译范例


上海城市化研究回顾
 
Retrospect of Shanghai Urbanization Studies


  

  [摘要] 九十年代以来,上海城市化进程中出现了一些新情况和新问题,各界学者对上海城市化进行了大量的研究。这些研究多集中于上海人口分布变化、农村城市化、城镇合理人口规模及城市化与区域发展等方面。本文对上海城市化研究的上述领域作以回顾与评述。

 

  改革开放以来,我国城市化发展速度加快,有关城市化的研究层出不穷。上海是全国的首位城市,又是中国经济、金融、贸易的龙头,其城市化发展引起了人口学、地理学、经济学、社会学等学者的广泛关注。各界学者从不同角度探讨了上海城市化发展过程中出现的新情况和新问题。对上海城市化研究进行回顾,将有助于其他大城市城市化研究以及未来上海城市化研究。

 

  九十年代以来,关于上海城市化研究主要集中于上海人口分布变化、农村城市化、城镇合理人口规模及城市化与区域发展等方面。

 

一.上海人口分布研究
  许多研究发现,八十年代末期以来,上海中心城区人口密度不断下降。究其原因主要是两个方面造成的。其一是由于行政区划的变动使中心城区的面积扩大了。其二是九十年代以来,土地地租、市政建设和老城区改造的大规模进行和产业结构的调整,使中心城区的居民大规模外迁。中心城区人口密度的下降,扭转了长期存在的市区人口过于稠密的不合理状况,对改善城市功能和居民居住条件发挥了显著作用。在中心城区人口密度下降的同时,城区外缘及城乡结合部的人口规模迅速扩大。这些地区人口增长来源于中心城区人口的扩散、远郊人口积聚和外来人口的涌入。中心城区和城区边缘人口密度的一升一降,使城市人口分布趋于合理。随之也有利于城市功能的分布和城市土地利用结构的合理化。

 

  城区外缘及城乡结合部处于中心城区和郊区之间这一独特的地域位置。因此,其人口结构、产业结构、空间形态和社会结构乃至文化心理等方面都有独特的特点。肖达、张捷在定义了大城市周边地区(近似于城市边缘区和城乡结合部)后,把这一地区放在全球化的背景下,对这一地区的发展演变、优势等方面做了有益的探索。这一思路对以后的研究将有所启发。

 

  在我国绝大多数城市还处于城市化过程中的集聚阶段时,上海等一些大城市出现了郊区化的趋势。张善余认为由于上海受经济水平特别是交通条件的制约,中心城区还在“摊大饼式”向四周蔓延,严格的说上海郊区化主要还是部分郊区的城区化,同发达国家的大都市人口郊区化是有区别的。由于城市郊区化在中国尚属初期,对郊区化的研究也刚刚起步,因此,上海郊区化的研究还有待深入。

 

  上海中心城区人口的外迁,虽然有利于城市空间的合理布局,但同时也引发了一系列的问题。对这些问题的研究主要集中于三个方面。第一,上海市区人口的大量搬迁,使人户分离的现象大量产生。这一现象加强了行政管理和治安管理的难度,扭曲了财政转移支付关系。其消极影响虽有讨论,但由于人户分离原因复杂,情况多变,因此对其对策的探讨就显苍白。第二,中心城区“空心化”与郊区“稀疏化”并存,都不利于经济、社会的发展。部分中心城区“空心化”使消费力流失,商业效益滑坡。针对这种状况,学者们提出了一些建议,如修正中心城区核心部分功能定位,调整人口再分布速度规模等。上海远郊区是未来中心城区扩散人口的重要接纳地和人口增长最快的地区之一。其“稀疏化”趋势不利于这一地区的进一步开发。但是遗憾的是对于“稀疏化”的研究不多。第三,各项生活服务配套设施与人口再分布态势不相适应。一些地区存在着交通难、看病难、上学难等问题。这为规划和调整教育、医疗、交通等市政设施建设布局提出了挑战。

 

  随着经济的快速发展,上海的人口分布将进一步变动。人口分布变动对未来全市的社会经济及市民生活都将产生重要影响。对于未来上海人口分布趋势,学者们作出了展望。上海“一个龙头,三个中心”的战略目标是促进人口再分布的重要动力。中心城区仍然过密的人口压力、环境压力、交通压力是促进人口再分布的推力。同时,城区土地合理开发和利用,居民住房改善的需求及家庭小型化和人口老龄化等方面也将推动人口分布进一步变动。这些推力将导致上海未来城区人口郊区化和农村人口城市化的高速发展。王桂新首次对上海人口地域分布变动及现代城市化发展趋势进行预测。首先,对未来二十年上海人口数量与密度变动进行分县区预测。指出上海未来人口地域分布变动表现出中心(市中心4区)与远郊(远郊5县)两极地区递减,中间地带(市中心外6区与郊区5区)递增的显著特征。城市化的快速展开将主要发生在近郊区,郊区化与城市化将在这一地带汇聚。其次,采用罗吉斯特表这一相对简单但又有效的城市化预测方法,分别假设按1981~1990年和1986~1990年两个阶段城市化的发展速度预测,上海2005年城市化水平达到80%左右,2010年达到84%左右,2020年达到90%左右。

 

二、 农村城市化研究

 

  八十年代初期,上海以“城乡一体化”为城市化的发展方针,以“建设和改造中心城,充实和发展卫星城,有步骤地开发南北两翼和有计划的建设郊县小城镇,把上海建设成为一个以中心城为主体,中心城、卫星城和郊县小城镇既相对独立又相互联系的群体城市”为城市建设战略。九十年代,上海城市化进入快速发展时期,郊区人口城市化率由八十年代初的12.1%提高到1990年的17.1%,年平均提高约1.5个百分点。从1990年至1996年,郊区人口城市化率平均每年提高约2~3个百分点,达到30%左右(朱宝树,1999)。浦东新区的开发,郊区城镇试点工作的开展,和郊区中心村的建设试点,使上海呈现层次分明的五层次城市化体系:即中心城区—新城、县城—中心镇—集镇—中心村。未来一二十年是上海郊区农村城市化的高速发展期,对农村城市化加以引导和推动,对上海早日建成城乡一体化发展的国际性大都市有非常重要的意义。

 

1、 农村剩余劳动力转移
  九十年代上海农村人口城市化与非农化转移进程出现了值得注意的转折性变化。农村人口城市化趋于加快,但仍滞后于非农化、工业化和经济发展水平。非农化转移明显滞缓。针对这些情况,朱宝树作了深入的研究。九十年代上海农村劳动力非农化转移明显滞缓,但却仍孕育着新一轮深层次的再转移的发展势头。劳动力转移就业的市场调节机制逐步形成,就业的市场化程度提高,劳动力转移加快且跨地区转移规模逐步扩大。研究同时发现,八十年代农村改革和乡镇企业的异军突起曾促使上海农村的大量农业剩余劳动力由隐性转为显形,并迅速实现非农化转移。但九十年代以来,与国有大中型企业类似,乡镇企业内部也产生了劳动力隐性剩余的现象,这种剩余的偏低估计为10%左右。同时,农村劳动力的隐性就业现象增多。

 

3、 集镇和小城镇建设
  集镇是上海城市化体系中的重要一环。八十年代后期以来,县(区)城和县镇(中心城镇)在镇建成区总面积和总人口比重上出现明显下降的态势。而一般小集镇的人口和面积所占比重则大幅度上升。同时,各类集镇人口容量规划目标普遍存在着求大倾向。因此,妥善处理上海农村人口城市化与集镇容量扩展关系为学者所关注。朱宝树认为集镇人口容量的重要问题不在于总量过大,而在于布局和结构性矛盾。郊区集镇布局过于分散而且规模偏小,因此,“求大”不能忽视“治散”,要以“变散为聚”促“化小为大”。

 

  杨晓勇、阎蓓对上海小城镇建设作了更为微观的研究。他们对浦东新区小城镇发展的现状特点与主要问题作了分析,拟订了浦东新区小城镇的地域发展战略与规划设想,并提出相应对策。对小范围的小城镇建设的研究,使得研究更有针对性,可行性和可操作性。

 

  另外,关于农村城市化与农业和农村工业,在以往已有很多研究。农业现代化是农村城市化的基础,工业化是农村城市化的主要动力等观点已成为学界的共识,这里就不再赘述。

 

三、 城市容量与合理人口规模

 

  上海作为中国第一大城市,其人口容量和未来人口合理规模受到广泛关注。九十年代以来,学者们在以往研究的基础上,采用不同的方法对未来上海人口合理规模进行许多了研究。

 

  1994年,王浣尘等人综合考虑经济效益、社会效益、生态环境和基于实力需求的人口对比等四个方面,利用系统工程多目标决策技术,对上海未来合理人口规模进行了比较深入的探讨。结论是上海到2050年常住人口合理规模为1550万人。受经济、社会、生态等整体效益与上海发展战略及实力需求是否协调的影响,上海人口容量上限可扩大为2000万人,下限降为1330万人。

 

  1995年伍理把上海的国际国内地位、作用的战略目标作为设定合理人口规模的依据。认为与“一个龙头,三个中心”相适应,上海应建成花园城市的同时,人口密度又要适应中国人多地少的国情。因此上海人口城市化地区人口密度界于1.0~1.2万人之间,非城市化地区人口密度为900~1000人每平方公里,上海全市人口总容量可达2493万人~2959万人。

 

  1997年,王桂新根据大城市城市化发展及人口迁移分布变动的一般规律,以上海现有人口状况为基础,结合上海发展的战略目标,提出上海实有人口规模仍将持续增长。到2010年达到2000万人。

 

  2000年,殷永元在总结过去研究的优劣的基础上,进一步探讨了上海未来合理人口规模问题。其思路和方法是以供给~需求理论和可持续发展思想为指导,借鉴日本东京都人口规模增长的经验,从主要供给制约因素—土地和主要需求制约因素—对劳动力的需求两个方面,对30年后上海合理人口规模进行研究。

 

  主要供给制约因素方面。殷永元从市区总面积、中心城区和郊区人口容纳力及人口城市化发展三个途径,并加入流动人口因素,认为到2030年上海实有总人口最大可能规模将达到2300万人,包括常住人口2000万人,流动人口300万人。主要需求制约因素方面。上海面临少子化和高龄化,需要增加人口规模和改善人口结构,才能保证上海经济可持续发展。同时,上海发展战略也需要大规模的人口作为基础。以上海人口占全国人口比例1.5%计算,上海在2030年常住人口规模应达到2250万人,流动人口300万人,总人口2550万人。综合分析供给与需求,认为常住人口2000万,流动人口300万,总人口2300万人是上海2030年人口增长的最大可能规模,也是从供给和需求制约两方面因素综合考虑确定的相对合理人口规模。

 

  以上分析可以看出,虽然学者们所用的方法不同,考察的侧重点有区别,但都考虑了上海发展战略目标和经济发展对上海人口需求等因素。综合各种预测方法,上海合理人口规模为1550~3000万人,集中意见为2000~2500万人。由于城市人口密度、产业结构和经济发展水平是不断变化的,最优的城市人口规模也会在不同时期有所调整。尽管确定城市最优人口规模非常困难,但对其研究不会终止。对这一问题不断深入的探讨将有助于加深对城市发展的宏观把握,和城市规划的完善。

 

四、 城市化与区域发展

 

  伴随城市化进程的加快,城市与乡村、城市与城市的交往和联系日益紧密,许多发达国家出现了城市圈和大都市带的空间发展形态,如美国东北沿岸城市群,日本东京大都市圈等。城市圈使城市化本身就成为区域的主要组成部分。把城市化融入区域发展中来的理论研究,在国外早已有之。比如,英国学者霍华德提出的田园城市模式,最早表达了将城市与区域相联系进行研究的思想;加拿大的麦吉提出以区域为基础的城市化道路等。在我国,实践丰富,但研究尚处于起步阶段。鲍宗豪等学者总结了国外区域发展与城市化融合的理论与实践。分析了中国区域发展与城市化进程融合的实践:浦东开发促进了长江三角洲的发展,深圳、珠海经济特区建设促进了珠江三角洲的繁荣,而这种繁荣是与城市化进程紧密相联的。学者们还对我国区域发展与城市化进程的理论进行评析,提出了促进理论研究的对策。

 

  上海“一个龙头,三个中心”的战略决策本身就把上海放到长江三角洲乃至整个长江流域之中。然而目前的研究大多以行政区划为分界,没有从区域这个更大的角度来探讨。对上海城市化与区域发展的讨论主要从城市经济和区域经济角度。曹抚生的研究认为上海崛起为国际经济中心城市,必须依托长江三角洲的发展。长江三角洲地区城市工业进程的加快,加速上海了城市功能的转换;三角洲地区城市经济的持续发展强化了上海在亚太地区城市链分工中的地位。要加快长江三角洲的发展,就要以区域经济和城市基础设施一体化为突破口,进行跨地区的企业联合与组织创新,提高区域内的开放程度。这样才能提高整个城市群参与国际经济活动的水平。

 

五、 综述与小结

 

  1. 在计划经济体制向市场经济体制转型的过程中,城市化发展的动力机制发生了显著变化。以往的一元或二元城市化动力转变为多元城市化动力。在城市基本建设资金中,国家投资所占的比重逐年下降(李讯等,2000年),利用外资,自筹资金,国内贷款等多种渠道来源的资金所占地位越来越重要。政府、企业、个人成为推动中国新城市化进程的三个城市化主体。上海城市化发展主要靠政府的发展战略和城市规划的带动,关于上海城市化的研究也因此紧密围绕城市发展战略。九十年代以来,上海城市化发展的动力也具有多元化的趋势,一些学者对这一问题进行了研究,但关于自下而上自发机制的研究只是略有涉及(宁越敏,1998),有待于深入。

 

  2. 学者们已经注意到上海城市化发展进入了新的阶段——郊区化阶段。对郊区化已经出现的问题,如中心城区空心化等方面作了一定的研究。但这些研究还停留在描述阶段,没有和城市未来发展规划结合起来,也就不能找出避免、或缓解中心城区空心化及以后可能出现的中心城区衰退的方法。同时,对城市边缘和城乡结合部的研究主要从流动人口、城市管理角度展开,还不够深入。

 

  3. 上海人口分布是学者关注的热点,研究成果丰富,而且比较细致。这使我们可以对上海人口分布的历史、现状和未来都能有很好的把握。然而大家更注意对中心城区和近郊区的研究,对远郊区人口分布的一些问题,如稀疏化,研究显得不足。

 

  4. 对于上海农村城市化的研究也很丰富。在肯定农村城市化取得重大进步的同时,学者们对存在的问题做了有价值的探索和研究。比如,上海农村剩余劳动力由显性转移变为隐性转移;乡镇企业良好机制退化使其对剩余劳动力吸纳能力减少,等等。学界对农村剩余劳动力转移的研究更为深入,对上海农村城市化模式进行了总结,并有针对性的对具体地区提出城镇建设规划。

 

  5. 影响城市人口容量的因素,主要包括两大方面:一是社会经济因素,二是资源环境因素。其中,社会经济因素包括经济发展水平(就业岗位数量、生活水平)和城市设施承载能力(交通设施、商业服务设施、提供住房能力、教育和医疗设施等)。资源环境因素主要指土地资源、水资源和城市生态环境容量。目前,对上海城市人口容量的研究都涉及了以上两个方面。尽管研究所用的人口基数、基础地域不尽统一,理论不同,方法各异,但都有值得借鉴的地方。对这一问题的探索会完善对于合理人口规模的思考。

 

6. 全国范围的关于城市化与区域发展的研究尚处于初级阶段,有待深入。目前的研究多侧重于经济、地理方面,相对的,人口、社会方面研究很少。

 

Abstracts: Since the 1990s some new conditions and problems have emerged in the course of Shanghai’s urbanization. Scholars in all circles have put in great efforts in studying them. The studies mostly focused on the changes in the distribution of Shanghai’s populations, urbanization of its rural areas, the reasonable size of populations in city and town, their urbanization and zoning development. This article is to make a review and comment on the studies in the fields mentioned above.

 

Since the introduction of reform and opening up, China’s urbanization has quickened and studies in this connection multiplied. Shanghai is the largest city in China and the leader in China’s economic, financing and trade sectors. Its urbanization has aroused extensive attention from scholars in the demographic, geographic, economic and sociological fields. They probed into the new conditions and new problems that appeared in the course of Shanghais urbanization. A retrospect into these studies will be conducive to the studies on the urbanization of other major cities as well as the future Shanghai urbanization studies.

 

 

 

 

The Shanghai urbanization studies since the 1990s have focused on the changes of Shanghai population layout, on rural urbanization, reasonable size of city and town populations as well as urbanization and zoning development.

 

I. Studies on Shanghai population layout

 

Many studies found a continuously declining density of Shanghai downtown population since the 1980s. There were two main reasons accountable for the reduction. (1) Expansion of the downtown area due to administrative zoning changes; (2) Massive relocation of downtown residents as a result of large-scale land lease, municipal works and old town renovations since the 1990s, and massive readjustment in industrial structure. Reduced downtown population density put an end to the prolonged unreasonable overpopulation problem, playing a significant role in improving the city functions and the residents’ dwelling conditions. While the downtown population density declined, the population size in the outskirts and the combined urban-rural areas rapidly expanded. The population growth in these areas stemmed from diversion of downtown population, agglomeration of remote suburbs and influx of migrant populations. The rise and fall in population density in downtown and suburban areas made the city’s population distribution more reasonable. It was conducive to the rationalization of city functional layout and urban land use structure.

 

 

 

 

 

The suburban and urban-rural areas are located in a unique geographical position between downtown and outskirts; hence a unique feature in population structure, industrial structure, space form and social structure, and even cultural psychology. After defining the vicinity of large cities (similar to the suburban and the combined urban-rural areas), Xiao Da and Zhang Jie made a beneficial probe into the evolution and advantages of these areas in the context of globalization. The line of thinking enlightened the subsequent studies.

 

 

 

 

A simulated analysis of the density of Shanghai downtown population by negative indexes and second functional indexes showed that the relocation of Shanghai downtown population basically conformed to the fundamental mode of large cities’ transition from traditional to modern cities. It also befitted the general laws governing changes in the distribution of downtown population (Wang Xingui and Yin Yongyuan, 2000). We may say that the metropolis of Shanghai has entered the stage of modern urbanization.

 

 

 

 

 

Relocation of population from Shanghai downtown areas, though conducive to the reasonable layout of city space, has triggered a series of questions. Studies on those questions focused on the following three aspects. First, large-scale relocation caused massive separation of residents from household registration. It increased difficulty in administrative management and security control and distorted the relations of financial transfer payment. The negative influence was discussed, but countermeasure probes seemed pale due to sophisticated reasons for the separation in question. Secondly, co-existence between hollow downtown areas and dispersed suburbs is unfavorable to economic and social development. Hollow downtown areas caused a loss of consumption power and a decline in commercial effects. Accordingly some scholars suggested revising the functional positioning of the core of downtown areas and readjusting the speed and size of population re-distribution. Shanghai remote suburbs are one of the most important areas to accept population influx from downtown areas. They will be one of the fastest population-growing areas. The trend of dispersion was unfavorable to the further development of the areas. But regrettably the studies on this issue were inadequate. Thirdly, service facilities were unfit for the redistribution of the population. Some of the areas were plagued by difficulties in transport, medical care and school education. This was a challenge to the planning and readjustment in the distribution of municipal works in education, medical care and transport.

 

 

 

 

 

Along with the rapid economic development, there will be further changes in the distribution of populations in Shanghai. The changes in population distribution will exert an important influence on the city’s future social economy and residents’ livelihood. Scholars have made a perspective look into the future trend of Shanghai population distribution. Shanghai’s strategic objective of leading the Yangtze Delta as the economic, financial, foreign trade center is an important motive force for promoting population redistribution. The pressures from excessive density of population, the environment and transport downtown will be the pushing force for population retribution. Meanwhile, reasonable development and utilization of urban land, requirements for residents’ housing, dwindled families and aging population will all contribute to further changes in population distribution. These pushing forces will lead to a rapid suburbanization of future urban district population and urbanization of rural population in Shanghai. Wang Xingui forecasted for the first time the changes in the geographical distribution of Shanghai’s population and modern urbanization. First of all, he forecasted changes in the quantity and density of Shanghai population in the next 20 years on the basis of counties and urban districts. He pointed out the remarkable features of future changes in Shanghai population geographical distribution. According to him, there will be a progressive reduction in the four downtown areas and the five remote suburban counties and a progressive growth in the intermediate belt (six districts and five suburbs surrounding the downtown areas). Secondly, he adopted the relatively simple yet effective Rogist (?) method as a means to forecast urbanization. Supposing the forecast to be made according to the 1981 – 1990 and 1986 – 1990 development speeds, then Shanghai urbanization rate will reach about 80% in 2005, about 84% in 2010 and about 90% in 2020.

 

 

 

II. Studies of Rural Urbanization

 

In the early 1980s Shanghai adopted the urbanization principle of integrating the urban and rural areas. The strategy was to build and renovate the central city, substantiate and develop satellite towns, develop the northern and southern wings step by step and construct the small towns in the suburban counties in a panned manner. The aim was to build Shanghai into a cluster of cities with the central city as the main body, integrating the central city, satellite towns and the small towns in the suburban counties. In the 1990s the urbanization of Shanghai entered into a period of rapid development. The urbanization rate of suburban population rose from 12.1% in the early 1980s to 17.1% in 1990, up by some 1.5 percentage points per year. From 1990 to 1996, the rate increased by 2 – 3 percentage points per year, adding up to some 30% (Zhu Baoshu, 1999). The development of Pudong New Area, the beginning of piloting suburban towns and the piloting construction sites in the suburban central villages have formed a five-layer urbanization system in Shanghai, namely, the downtown areas --- new cities --- county seats (central towns) --- small towns --- central villages. The next ten to twenty years will be a period of rapid development in the urbanization of Shanghai suburban urbanization. Guiding and pushing the rural urbanization will be of great significance to the early completion of Shanghai as an international metropolis with integrated urban and rural development.

 

 

 

 

 

1. Transfer of rural redundant labor

 

In the course of the urbanization of Shanghai rural population and its transfer from the agricultural sector in the 1990s, there emerged a noteworthy change of a reversal character. The urbanization of rural population tended to accelerate, but still lagged behind the transfer from the agricultural sector and the industrial and economic development levels. The transfer from the agricultural sector was obviously falling behind. Accordingly Zhu Baoshu made an in-depth study. In the 1990s Shanghai transfer of rural labor from the agricultural sector was obviously sluggish. But the process was pregnant with a new round of in-depth retransfer momentum. The market regulation mechanism of labor transfer employment was taking shape. The rate of market-oriented employment was on the rise. The transfer of labor was quickening and cross- district transfer was gradually expanding. Meanwhile, researches also found that rural reforms and the booming township enterprises in the 1980s turned visible the once-looming Shanghai rural redundant labor, and accelerated its transfer from the agricultural sector. But since the 1990s, looming redundant labor has also appeared in township enterprises just as it did in large and medium-sized enterprises. According to conservative estimate, the rate of such redundantlabor is about 10%. Meanwhile hidden employment of rural labor is looming large.

 

Small town and small-town construction

 

Small towns are an important link in the system of Shanghai urbanization. Since the late 1980s there was an obvious drop in the proportion of areas and populations in county seats (district towns), and county towns (central towns) to the total acreage and populations in the completed town areas. On the other hand, there was a wide-margin growth in the proportion of small-town populations and areas. Meanwhile, there was a prevailing “the bigger the better” tendency in the planning goal of small-town population capacity. Therefore, proper treatment of the relations between urbanization of Shanghai rural population and expansion of small town capacity became a question of concern to the scholars. For Zhu Baoshu, the importance of small town capacity did not lie in overpopulation, but in the contradiction between the layout and the structure. The layout of small suburban towns was overly scattered, and the size of these towns was too small. In his view, the bigger the better tendency should be corrected to guard against dispersion. It was necessary to change from dispersion to agglomeration and from small concentration to large concentration.

 

Yang Xiaoyong and Yan Pei made even more micro-studies of Shanghai small-town construction. They analyzed the status quo, special features and the main problems of Pudong New Area small towns, mapped out their geographical development strategy and planning ideas, and proposed countermeasures. Their studies on small-town construction within a small framework led to greater practicality, feasibility and operability.

 

Additionally, there have been many studies on rural urbanization, agriculture and rural industry. The modernization of agriculture is the basis of rural urbanization and industrialization is the main motive force of rural urbanization. These are all viewpoints that have come to consensus in the academic world. No repetition is required here.

 

 

 

 

III. City Accommodation Capacity and Rational Population Size

 

Shanghai is the largest metropolis in China. Its population capacity and reasonable population size are of extensive concern. Since the 1990s scholars have, on the basis of previous researches, adopted different methods in researching this issue.

 

 

 

 

 

In 1994 Wang Wanchen and others made a comprehensive study of four different aspects, namely, economic and social benefits, ecological environment and population comparisons based on practical strength requirements. Utilizing the multi-objective decision-making technology of the systems project, they conducted an in-depth probe into Shanghai’s future reasonable population size. The conclusion was that the reasonable permanent population should be 15.5 million in 2050. Subject to the influence of whether the economic, social, ecological and other integral benefits would fit in with Shanghai’s development strategy and practical strength requirements, the upper and lower limits of Shanghai’s population capacity may be extended to 20 million and 13.3 million respectively.

 

In 1995 Wu Li took the strategic goal of Shanghai in terms of domestic and international status and role as the basis for devising the rational size of population. They maintained that Shanghai should be built into a garden-like city to fit in with its leading position in the Yangtze Delta as economic, financial and foregn trde center. Besides, the density of its population should fit in with the national condition of overpopulation plus land scarcity. Therefore, the density of population in Shanghai urbanized and non-urbanized areas should be between 10000 and 12000, and between 900 and 1000, per square kilometer, respectively. The total population accommodation capacity of the whole city could reach 24.93 million and 29.59 million.

 

In 1997 Wang Guixin suggested that the Shanghai practical population continue to grow and will have reached 20 million by 2010. He did so on the basis of the general laws governing the urbanization of large cities and the changes in the relocation layout of population. He did so also on the basis of the present population conditions and in combination with Shanghai’s strategic goal of development.

 

In 2000 Yin Yongyuan further probed Shanghai’s future rational population size on the basis of the previous studies, good or bad. His line of thinking and method was as follows: Guided by the supply-demand theory and sustainable development ideas, and drawing on the experience of Tokyo population growth, he made a study of Shanghai’s rational population size for 2030. He did so from the two main restraining supply and demand factors, land supply and labor demand.

 

 

 

 

 

In terms of restraining factors in supply, Yin Yongyuan analyzed the three channels of the total area of urban districts, downtown areas and suburban population accommodation capacity, population urbanization development plus the mobile population factor. He held that by 2030, Shanghai’s practical population would have most probably totaled 23 million, including 20-million permanent residents and another 3 million mobile residents. In terms of restraining factors in demand, Shanghai, confronted with fewer children and greater aging population, must increase population and improve population structure in order to guarantee its sustainable economic development. Besides, Shanghai must also base itself on a large size of population in its strategy of development. Take the proportion of Shanghai population to the national total as 1.5%, by 2030, Shanghai’s permanent, mobile and total populations should have reached 22. 5 million, 3 million and 25.5 million, respectively. On the basis of a comprehensive analysis of the supply and demand, he considered that a permanent population of 20 million, a mobile population of 3 million and a total population of 23 million would be the most probable size of Shanghai’s population by 2030. And that was also the relatively reasonable population size after considering the supply-and-demand restraining factors.

 

From these analyses we may see that although scholars used different methods and studied from different angles, they all considered the factors of Shanghai’s development strategic goals and economic development’s demand for population in Shanghai. Summing up the various forecasting methods, the Shanghai reasonable population size would be 15.5 million to 30 million, mostly concentrating on 20 – 25 million. As the density of city population, industrial structure and economic development levels are all apt to change constantly, there will be readjustments of the most optimum city population size. Despite the difficulty in deciding on the optimum city population size, such studies will go on endlessly. A deepening probe on the issue will help deepen the macro control of the city development and improvement of the city plan.

 

 

 

 

IV. Urbanization and Regional Development

 

Along with the acceleration of urbanization and the intensified communication and links between city and countryside and between cities, there emerged city clusters and metropolis as a form of space development in many developed countries. There emerged a Northeast cluster of cities in the United States and a ring of cities surrounding the Tokyo Metropolis in Japan. A ring of cities made urbanization itself the main component of a region. There have emerged theoretical studies abroad long since with regard to integrating urbanization into regional development. For example, British scholar Howard was the first to propose the garden-like city model that linked up the city and regional studies. Canadian scholar Maggie proposed the path of region-based urbanization. In China, we have a rich experience in practice but are still at an initial stage of studies. Summing up the foreign theory and practice in integrating regional development with urbanization, Bao Zonghao and other scholars analyzed the Chinese practice in this connection. The development of Pudong promoted that of the Delta on the Yangtze River. The construction of Shenzhen and Zhuhai special economic zones promoted the prosperity of the delta on the Pearl River. And such prosperity has been closely connected with urbanization process. Scholars have also commented and analyzed the theory of integrating Chinese regional development in urbanization and suggested countermeasures to promote theoretical studies.

 

The strategic decision to make Shanghai the leader of the Yangtze Delta and its, economic, foreign trade and financial center has in itself placed Shanghai in the Yangtze Delta and even in the Yangtze river valley. But most studies presently base themselves on administrative zoning instead of probing the question from a larger regional angle. Discussions on Shanghai urbanization and regional development mainly proceeded from the angle of urban economy and regional economy. In his studies, Cao Fusheng held that Shanghai must rely on the development of the Yangtze delta in its rise as an international economic central city. Accelerated progress of urban industries in the Yangtze Delta quickened the transfer of city functions in Shanghai. Sustained development of urban industries in the Yangtze Delta upgraded the status of Shanghai in the chain of work division in the Asia-Pacific region. To accelerate the development in Yangtze Delta, we must make a breakthrough in integrating regional economy and city infrastructure and engage in cross-regional enterprise association and organizational creation so as to throw the door of the region wider open to the outside world

 

 

 

 

 

V. Roundup and Summation

 

1. In the transition from a planned to a market economy, there was an obvious change in the motive mechanism in urbanization. The previous unified or dual motive force became diversified. The proportion of state investment in city infrastructure construction dropped from year to year (Li Xun, 2000). Funds from foreign investors, self-collected funds and domestic loans became more important. Government, enterprise and individual became the three major investors in the new urbanization of China today. Shanghai urbanization is mainly based on the governmental strategy of development and the pulling force of the city planning. Hence studies on Shanghai urbanization are closely linked up with city development strategy. Since the 1990s, the motive force of Shanghai urbanization has also tended to be diversified. Some scholars probed into the problem but studies had just touched on the issue and remained to be deepened on spontaneous mechanism from down up.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2. Scholars have paid attention to the fact that Shanghai urbanization has entered a new stage of development, the stage of suburbanization. Some studies have been carried out on questions cropping up in suburbanization, such as hollow downtown areas. But these studies are still at a descriptive stage. They have not yet been connected with the city’s future plan of development. Thus it is impossible to find a way to avoid or reduce the trend of downtown areas becoming hollow and declining in the future. Meanwhile, studies on city borders and the urban-rural combination areas are not profound enough since they still mainly focus on mobile population and urban administration.

 

 

 

 

3. Shanghai population distribution is a hot issue for scholars. There are rich and delicate research findings, enabling us to have a good grasp of its history, status quo and future. But greater concern is given to the downtown areas and the closer suburban areas to the neglect of the problems in population distribution in remote suburban areas, for example, increasing sparseness.

 

 

4. There have been many studies on Shanghai rural urbanization too. While affirming the great progress made, scholars also made valuable probes and researches into the existing problems. For example, the visible transition of redundant rural labor in Shanghai became invisible. The good mechanism of township enterprises degenerated, causing a decline in their capacity of absorbing redundant labor. Scholars have made deeper studies on the transfer of rural redundant labor. They made a summation of the model of Shanghai rural urbanization and proposed town construction plans in concrete regions according to the local conditions.

 

 

 

 

5. There are two main factors affecting the population accommodation capacity of a city: social economy and the resource environment. Of these two factors, social economy includes economic development levels (the number of jobs available and living standard), and city infrastructure capacity (transport, commercial service, housing, education and medical care facilities). The resource environment mainly refers to land, water and ecological capacity. Presently Shanghai urban population capacity studies involve both factors. Despite the difference in the base population figures used, the basic areas employed and the theories and methods applied, all these studies contain valuable points worth studying. The probe into the issue will perfect deliberations on the rational size of population.

 

 

 

 

 

6. Nationwide studies on urbanization and regional development are still at an initial stage and remain to be deepened. Most studies presently concentrate on the economic and geographical aspects. Relatively speaking, studies on the demographic and social aspects are yet to be developed.

嘉文博译郑重声明:

(1)

本网站所有案例及留学文书作品(包括“个人陈述”Personal Statement,“目的陈述”Statement of Purpose, “动机函”Motivation Letter,“推荐信”Recommendations / Referemces “, (小)短文”Essays,“学习计划”Study Plan,“研究计划”(Research Proposal),“签证文书”Visa Application Documents 及“签证申诉信”Appeal Letter等等),版权均为嘉文博译所拥有。未经许可,不得私自转载,违者自负法律责任。

(2)

本网站所有案例及留学文书作品(包括“个人陈述”Personal Statement,“目的陈述”Statement of Purpose, “动机函”Motivation Letter,“推荐信”Recommendations / Referemces “, (小)短文”Essays,“学习计划”Study Plan,“研究计划”(Research Proposal),“签证文书”Visa Application Documents 及“签证申诉信”Appeal Letter等等),版权均为嘉文博译所拥有。未经许可,不得私自转载,违者自负法律责任。仅供留学申请者在学习参考,不作其他任何用途。任何整句整段的抄袭,均有可能与其他访问本网站者当年递交的申请材料构成雷同,而遭到国外院校录取委员会“雷同探测器”软件的检测。一经发现,后果严重,导致申请失败。本网站对此概不负责。

北京市海淀区上地三街9号金隅嘉华大厦A座808B

电话:(010)-62968808 / (010)-13910795348

钱老师咨询邮箱:qian@proftrans.com   24小时工作热线:13910795348

版权所有 北京嘉文博译教育科技有限责任公司 嘉文博译翻译分公司 备案序号:京ICP备05038804号